I finally admitted to my team I was wrong about the quarterly forecast

I spent the whole month insisting our revenue would hit 120k, but the actual report showed 85k. The worst part was having to explain it in our Monday meeting after I'd been so confident. Has anyone else had to walk back a major work prediction like that?

4 comments

4 Comments

charlescraig2mo ago

Admitting a mistake actually builds trust for your next forecast.

wood.eric2mo ago

Honestly, why even admit you were wrong? You were just working with the data you had at the time. Isn't the whole point of a forecast to be a best guess, not a promise? Your team should understand that numbers change. Owning up to it just makes you look unsure and hurts your credibility for next time. Wouldn't it have been better to just present the new number and move on without the big show of saying you messed up?

ruby_henderson362mo ago

Wait, you think a forecast being wrong is the same as messing up? That's wild. In my job, if we guess wrong about how a fire will spread, we own it immediately. People could get hurt if we pretend we're always right. How does hiding a mistake ever build real trust?

evan_green521mo ago

Just present the new number and move on" is a real interesting way to say "hope nobody notices the old slide is still in the deck." If your forecast changes, people are going to see the old one was wrong. Pretending it didn't happen is how you end up with a team that double-checks your work behind your back. Ruby_henderson36 has it right, it's about what happens when the stakes are higher than a spreadsheet. Acting like a wrong guess never happened doesn't make you look more sure, it just makes you look like you're playing a different game.